OK, time for my lame-ass Oscar predictions. Not only who WILL win, but also who I honestly think should win.
will win: Argo
should win: Silver Linings Playbook.
Argo was a great film. It truly was. But Silver Linings was a masterpiece. Possibly the best American romantic comedy since Annie Hall.
Best Director (because it really is the second most important category, and damn if they didn’t fuck it up this year)
will win: Ang Lee for Life of Pi
should win: David O. Russell
Why Life of Pi is nominated for anything, I don’t know, but I’ll close my eyes and think Lee is receiving it instead for Ice Storm. Russell made the best film and thus deserves the award. How can the best film NOT be made by the best director. That would be like naming “Starry Night” painting of the year, but overlooking Van Gogh. It’s beyond stupid. A close second here would be Ben Affleck, who of course wasn’t nominated.
will win: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
should win: Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings
Yes, yes, blah, blah, Daniel Day-Lewis embodied Lincoln. We already know he can act. We know that a thousand times over. We however did not know that about Cooper. And he knocked this performance out of the proverbial park.
will win AND should win: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings
She is the best young actress of our generation. She should have won two years ago for Winter’s Bone. She can tell you more with a look than most actors can with a speech. She’s a godsend in this film, every breath is brilliant and perfect and real and makes me want to cry just thinking about it.
Best Supporting Actor
will win AND should win: Robert DeNiro for Silver Linings
Alan Arkin is close. But for the first time in decades DeNiro didn’t just phone a performance in. And he shined.
Best Supporting Actress
will win: Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables
should win: Jacki Weaver for Silver Linings
I loved Anne Hathaway in Love And Other Drugs. But I’m not a musical sort of guy. So, sorry, in my crazy world Silver Linings gets the sweep. Though I would say Ann Dowd in Compliance would be a very close second. Though of course she isn’t nominated.
will win: Searching for Sugar Man
should win: I’m torn here. I loved Sugar Man, and LOVE the idea of a rock doc winning for the very first time. But Invisible War was gut wrenching and important. They are actually all very strong candidates. Any choice here is a good choice. The Academy got it right this year. Five great films.
Best Original Screenplay
will win: Zero Dark Thirty
should win: no one nominated in this category
I though this was a very weak year for original screenplays. When they open the envelope they should announce: “no one.”
Best Adapted Screenplay
will win: Argo
should win: Silver Linings
Both are honestly great scripts, either could or should win.
Have fun tonight. Drink a lot.